Honeywell Forecast Estimates 7,700 Business Jet Deliveries Through 2028, $251 Billion Value

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In its 27th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, Honeywell is forecasting 7,700 new business jet deliveries valued at $251 billion stretching from 2019 to 2028. The total is about a 1- to 2-percent increase from Honeywell’s 2017 forecast. The company says a transition to new, innovative models and a better used jet market will lead to an expected 8- to 10-percent increase in deliveries in 2019. (Image courtesy of Honeywell.)

New airplane models coming to market and an improved used aircraft market have positioned the global business jet industry to “experience strong growth” in the short-to-medium term. That according to Honeywell’s 27th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, which forecasts 7,700 new business jets valued at $251 billion for delivery from 2019 to 2028—a roughly 1- to 2-percent increase over Honeywell’s 10-year forecast from 2017.

Larger-Cabin Classes Growing

Honeywell’s forecast is based on input from aerospace industry leaders, 1,500-plus global nonfractional business jet operators, macroeconomic analyses, and OEM production and development plans. Bill Kircos, Honeywell Aerospace vice president of global marketing, says that higher 2019 projected deliveries follow a “virtually flat” 2018. Combined with an improved used jet market, Kircos says new upcoming aircraft models will drive solid growth in 2019 and 2020 and significantly impact new business jet purchases in the mid- and long term.

Key forecast findings include operators planning to make new jet purchases equal to about 20 percent of their fleets over the next five years as “replacements or additions to their current fleet.” That’s a 1-percent increase from 2017’s survey. Additionally, 14 percent of all new business jet acquisitions are expected to occur by 2019’s end, and 16 percent and 24 percent are respectively planned for 2020 and 2021. Operators will also continue focusing on larger-cabin classes (super midsize to ultra-long-range), which are expected to comprise 87 percent-plus of all new business-jet expenditures in the next five years. Through 2028, Honeywell projects 3 to 4 percent average annual growth due to new models, better economic performance, and “anticipated favorable exchange rates for international customers.”

The Used Market

For North America (the world’s largest market with 65 percent of the global installed base), Honeywell says new purchase plan levels rose 1 percent from last year. Honeywell states 61 percent of projected global demand will stem from North American operators in the next five years. As for the used jet market, Honeywell found that the total of recent model jets (less than 10 years old) listed for resale globally was down 30 percent year over year, and the total now sits slightly higher than 5 percent of the installed base but “well below” the roughly 8 percent historical average and “very positive for new business jet sales.”

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Source: Honeywell

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